Favourites for the T20 world cup?

Who will be the favourites for the T20 world cup, many have already opined the defending champions are the favourites. It can be argued that the defending champions are the best team on paper and there should be no question about that. More importantly it is the experience playing in the IPL is also said to be a positive for the Indian team.
But the last time India started as favourites was the 2007 world cup, where we were out in the first round itself. But things have changed a lot since then. The influential captaincy of Dhoni is with us, and I hope we reach at least the semis of the tournament and may be retain the cup itself, but before predicting I would like to see more matches, and see how India will play as a team. The players should be sharp in the field and while batting they should defend themselves from complacency.
For me the biggest figure while chasing down is the middle overs, where India can make it a no contest for the opposite team, instead they play too slow and the opposition is right back in the game. Last over heroics can save the game else we loose thus making the chances 50:50 or even less in our favour, we have seen that happen in the warm up match, until the 17th over was bowled we would have won the match easily. two good overs 17th and 18th together with just 5runs and a wk saw the match, much to the kiwis delight, we had 21 runs from the last over, but the batsman was neither Rohit nor was he playing for the Deccan chargers, that is why I say Rohit down the order will be a great asset while chasing. he will be great batting in the final overs and Sehwag I hope he gets fit in time and also back to his smashing form.
So others teams which are strong are South Africa and Newzealand neither of them have ever won a world cup ever, but my predictions are they would make to the semis with India.